Fed rate normalisation
Most analysts are forecasting an increase in fed fund rate and tightening of US monetary conditions, perhaps by second half of 2015. This move will impact Asian countries, being the large recipients of QE flows and thus vulnerable to sudden stops in the flow.
Further to this, China slower growth and weak imports, as opposed to US’ stronger import would dampen Asia’s export recovery.
Data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Look where Malaysia is?
On the eastern side, Abenomics have failed to achieve the objectives (the three arrows) and Japan is thus likely to be in deflationary state. With the current state of low oil price, Japan as net energy importer would benefit from it, and BOJ has thus lowered its CPI forecast to 1% which has suggested that further monetary easing would be necessary. Subsequent to this yen is expected to go lower to 130 by year end (source: ABN Amro) and putting downward pressure on prices which in turns may delay their inflation target this year.
US is certainly benefiting from potential rate hike and stronger dollar. As we can see in the recent years there is a continuous upbeat in the US economy.
Certainly there are many more areas to look at, Malaysia for example as the exporter of oil impacted by the fell in oil price which has prompted the government to revise its 2015 budget. Greece crisis and Eurozone issues at large are another angle to look at which certainly have impacts on the global growth this year. On the other hand, Indonesia, India and Philippines are enjoying growth and positive outlook, stemming particularly from the policy revision, rebound in government spending and fiscal reduction pledge by their respective governments.
what's brewing? 